Investors know that trying to pick the right startup to fund is a hit and miss affair. We do a lot of due diligence and analysis, but the truth is that it's usually a gamble because it's impossible to predict which one will succeed , and which one won't. After all, at such an early stage, there are very few metrics one can analyse, so we are forced to go by our gut feel. This is why the rule of thumb is that you should back the founder - which is why the bet is always on the jockey and not the horse. This is why we try to assess the founder's charisma . Is he capable of selling his dream ? attracting the right team ? does he have the X Factor which blows you away ?